1) Worsening global economic environment triggered by the prolonged Iran conflict and instability around the Straits of Hormuz. With no immediate settlement in sight, global oil prices are expected to remain high. While oil-producing nations may benefit in theory, the political reality inside Malaysia is very different. Rising diesel prices, inflationary pressure, and the eventual restructuring of the RON95 subsidy mechanism could seriously damage Anwar’s standing among middle and lower-income voters.

2) Developments in Johor could dramatically reshape national political momentum. There are growing signs that the Johor leadership may prefer an early dissolution of the State Assembly. Menteri Besar Datuk Onn Hafiz enjoys strong grassroots popularity, and UMNO is widely expected to retain its two-thirds majority if a snap state election is held.

Such a victory would create a dangerous psychological wave for a resurgent UMNO. The party would immediately market the result as proof that “UMNO’s Long March Back to Power Has Begun,” energising its machinery nationwide and strengthening perceptions that Malay support is consolidating behind Barisan Nasional once again.

3) Anwar’s credibility is  facing severe erosion by the day. The reformist image that once powered his rise is increasingly colliding with public perceptions of selective political silence. His refusal to sack MACC Chief Azam Baki, the lack of decisive action over the Sabah mining controversy, and allegations involving his close associate Farhash have collectively weakened his anti-corruption credentials.

4) Anwar’s recent political positioning has also exposed deeper anxieties within his coalition. His willingness to appear confrontational towards the Selangor Royal Palace over sensitivities linked to the pig farming controversy has raised eyebrows among sections of the Malay electorate. After years of attempting to consolidate Malay support, Anwar may now realise those efforts have not translated into meaningful gains.Hence he is shockingly publicly portraying himself as looking after the interests of Chinese community.

5) Another factor is the visible instability and cracks within Perikatan Nasional itself. Leadership tensions, strategic confusion, and competing ambitions between its key components may convince Anwar that this is the best possible time to strike. From an electoral strategy perspective, facing a fractured opposition now may be far safer than waiting for PN to regroup into a more disciplined and united force later.

6) Indian voters remain electorally decisive in at least 39 mixed parliamentary constituencies and are critical to retaining Selangor and Negeri Sembilan. Anwar appears increasingly aware that dissatisfaction within the Indian community is reaching dangerous levels.

His recent remarks before Indian student groups, where he attempted to soften earlier controversial statements linked to the Hindu temple issue, appeared less like statesmanship and more like electoral damage control. The sudden announcement of an additional RM50 million allocation for MITRA also appears politically timed to pacify growing frustration before it turns into a protest vote.

The political window is narrowing — and Anwar knows it.

Waytha Moorthy Ponnusamy

12th May 2026

Look out for Part 2 tomorrow: The Hidden Electoral Strategy PN Could Use to Capture the 35 Mixed Seats Currently Held by PKR and Amanah.